Correct Answer :   7.44%

In July, retail inflation in India experienced a significant upswing, reaching 7.44%, marking the highest rate since April 2022. This surge contrasts with the preceding four-month period of inflation below the central bank’s 6% tolerance threshold. The increase is largely attributed to an 11.5% spike in food prices, making it the first time since September 2022 that the price rise has crossed the 7% mark.


Food Price Surge Drives Overall Inflation :

The primary driver of the July inflation surge was an impressive 11.5% increase in food prices, causing a ripple effect on the overall inflation rate. Notably, vegetable prices surged by a staggering 37.3%, while cereals and pulses became over 13% more expensive. Consequently, urban consumers saw their food bills rise by over 12.3%, while rural consumers experienced an 11% increase in food inflation. On the whole, rural residents faced a slightly higher overall inflation rate of 7.63% for the same period.

Consumer Price Index and Food Price Dynamics :

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.9% from the previous month, reflecting the swift inflationary pressures. The month-on-month increase in food prices was notable as well, with a 6.7% upsurge. These figures surpassed the expectations of most economists.


Implications for the Economy :

The sudden surge in inflation poses challenges for the central bank’s projections and policy decisions. The 7% inflation rate for two consecutive months raises questions about the possibility of triggering action from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Bank of Baroda’s chief economist, Madan Sabnavis, points out that while the probability of an interest rate hike remains low, it cannot be ruled out entirely.

Future Outlook and Monetary Policy :

While a slight reduction in tomato prices might offer some relief in August, other food items such as pulses, spices, milk, and cereals continue to be sources of concern. Additionally, the uncertain monsoon outlook for the coming month and the progress of crop sowing further contribute to the inflation narrative.

Interest rate adjustments are now under scrutiny, with rating agency ICRA expecting the earliest rate cut around the second quarter of 2024-25. This projection includes a “fairly shallow” rate cut cycle, anticipated to be around 50-75 basis points from the current levels. As one basis point equals 0.01%, such adjustments could have a measured impact on the broader economy.

Correct Answer :   (-) 1.36%

The wholesale price-based inflation remained in the negative territory for the fourth straight month in July 2023 at (-)1.36% on easing prices of fuel, even though food articles turned costlier.

* The wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation rate has been in the negative since April and was (-)4.12% in June. In July 2022, it was 14.07%.

* Inflation in food articles skyrocketed 14.25% in July against 1.32% in June.

* "Decline in the rate of inflation in July 2023 is primarily contributed by fall in prices of mineral oils, basic metals, chemical and chemical products, textiles and food products," the Commerce and Industry Ministry said on Monday.

* Fuel and power basket inflation eased to (-)12.79% in July from (-)12.63% in June.

* In manufactured products, the inflation rate was (-)2.51% as against (-)2.71% in June.

* The RBI, last week, kept interest rates unchanged at 6.5% for the third straight meeting but signalled tighter policy if food prices drive inflation higher.

* "The job on inflation is still not done," RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das had said. "Inflationary risks persist amidst volatile international food and energy prices, lingering geopolitical tensions, and weather-related uncertainties."

* The RBI raised its inflation forecast for FY24 to 5.4% from 5.1% earlier, citing pressures from food prices.

* The central bank takes into account retail or consumer price index based inflation for formulating monetary policy. Retail inflation data for July is scheduled to be released later in the day..

Source : The Hindu Businessline

Correct Answer :   Rs 1.65 lakh

The gross Goods and Services Tax (GST) revenue collected in July 2023 was Rs 1,65,105 crore, slightly higher than the collections in July 2023, according to data released by the finance ministry on Tuesday (1st August 2023).

It is for the fifth time since the rollout of the regime that the gross GST collection crossed the Rs 1.60 lakh crore mark.

In April 2023, the GST collections had touched an all-time high of Rs 1.87 lakh crore.

Of the Rs 1.65 lakh crore July 2023 mop up, the central GST was Rs 29,773 crore and state was is Rs 37,623 crore and Integrated GST was Rs 85,930 crore (including Rs 41,239 crore collected on import of goods).

The cess was Rs 11,779 crore (including Rs 840 crore collected on import of goods), a release by the ministry said.

The total revenue of Centre and the States in the month of July 2023 after regular settlement was Rs 69,558 crore for CGST and Rs 70,811 crore for the SGST.

Notably, the GST revenues for the month of July 2023 are 11% higher than the GST revenues in the same month last year.

During the month, the revenues from domestic transactions (including import of services) were 15% higher than the revenues from these sources during the same month last year (2022)..

Source : ToI

Correct Answer :   6.1%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday (25th July 2023) raised the FY24 economic growth forecast for India by 20 basis points to 6.1 per cent, citing the country’s stronger-than-expected growth momentum in the March quarter of FY23.

“Growth in India is projected at 6.1 per cent in 2023, a 0.2 percentage point upward revision compared with the April projection, reflecting momentum from stronger-than-expected growth in the fourth quarter of 2022 as a result of stronger domestic investment,” said IMF in an update to its ‘World Economic Outlook’ (WEO) released in April.

 India’s economic growth increased by 6.1 per cent in the March quarter of FY23, beating analysts’ expectations as the expansion in manufacturing and construction surprised on the upside.

Most professional forecasters expect the Indian economy to grow between 6 per cent and 6.5 per cent in FY24. While the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) last month revised upward its forecast to 6 per cent for FY24, the Reserve Bank of India expects the economy to expand at 6.5 per cent in the same financial year.

 “India remains an economy that is growing quite strongly. One sixth of total global growth is accounted for by India this year,” Danish Leigh, division chief, Research department at IMF said addressing the media after the release of the WEO update report.

Leigh said inflation in India is projected to remain within the target range of 2-6 per cent. “IMF has an inflation forecast of 4.9 per cent for FY24. Food prices easing has contributed to that as well as the strong action by the Reserve Bank of India. We see the need to continue to balance the pressures of inflation and output to make sure that inflation stays inside the target range as we expect it will,” he added..

Source : Business Standard

Correct Answer :   $1.229 billion

India's forex exchange (forex) reserves jumped by $1.229 billion in the week that ended on 7 July 2023, totaling $596.280 billion, as per RBI's data. Now, the country's reserves are at nearly a 2-month high. This will also be the second-consecutive weekly rise in reserves. In the week under review, except for a slight dip in SDRs, all other components of reserves picked up.

Data from RBI, forex reserves jumped by $1.229 billion to $596.280 billion in the week that ended on July 7, 2023. Prior to this week, reserves rose by $1.853 billion.

Foreign currency assets (FCA), which is the biggest component of reserves, zoomed by $989 million to $528.968 billion in the week that ended on July 7. In the previous week, the surge was much higher by $2.539 billion.

Furthermore, in the week that ended on July 7, 2023, gold reserves grew by $228 million to $44.060 billion, while reserve position in the IM came in at $5.017 billion up by $15 million on a week-on-week basis.

On the other hand, SDRs dipped by a meager $4 million to $18.235 billion in the week ending on July 7, 2023.

India's forex reserves were at an all-time high of $645 billion in October 2021. Meanwhile, the foreign exchange reserves stood at $578.4 billion as on March 31, 2023..

Source : Mint

Correct Answer :   $624.7 billion

* India's external debt has increased marginally to $624.7 billion annually in end-March 2023, although the debt-GDP ratio declined.

* The external debt increased by $5.6 billion from $619.1 billion at end-March 2022.

* Valuation gains due to the appreciation of the US dollar compared to the Indian rupee and major currencies were placed at $20.6 billion.

* Excluding the valuation effect, external debt would have increased by $26.2 billion instead of $5.6 billion in March 2023.

Source : Moneycontrol

Correct Answer :   Rs 1.61 lakh crore

India GST collections rose 12% to over Rs 1.61 lakh crore in June 2023, the Finance Ministry said on Saturday (1st July 2023).

* The gross GST collection has crossed Rs 1.60 lakh crore mark for the fourth time since the roll-out of the indirect tax regime six years ago on July 1, 2017.

* The average monthly gross GST collection for the first (April-June) quarter of the 2021-22, 2022-23 and 2023-24 are Rs 1.10 lakh crore, Rs 1.51 lakh crore and Rs 1.69 lakh crore, respectively, the Finance Ministry said in a statement.

* "The gross GST revenue collected in the month of June 2023 is Rs 1,61,497 crore of which Central GST is Rs 31,013 crore, State GST is Rs 38,292 crore, Integrated GST is Rs 80,292 crore (including Rs  39,035 crore collected on import of goods) and cess is Rs 11,900 crore (including Rs 1,028 crore collected on import of goods)," the statement said.

* The revenues for June 2023 are 12% higher than the GST revenues in the same month last year. During the month, the revenues from domestic transactions (including import of services) are 18 per cent higher than the revenues from these sources during the same month last year.

* The revenues had touched a record high of Rs 1.87 lakh crore in April. In May, it was Rs 1.57 lakh crore..


--outlookindia

Correct Answer :   12.73%

Gross Direct Tax collections for Financial Year 2023-24 till now have registered a growth of 12.73%. The figure stands at 4,19,338 crore rupees as compared to 3,71,982 crores in the corresponding period of the preceding financial year.

* Net collections are at 3,79,760 crores, showing a growth of 11.18%.
 
* Gross collections include Corporation Tax at 1,87,311 crore, and Personal Income Tax at 2,31,391 crore. Advance Tax collections for the first quarter of 2023-24 stand at 1,16,776 crores, showing a growth of 13.70%. Refunds amounting to 39,578 crores have also been issued in 2023-24 till now..

Source : AIR

Correct Answer :   (-)3.48

The annual rate of inflation based on all India Wholesale Price Index (WPI) numbers is (-) 3.48% (Provisional) for the month of May 2023, against (-) 0.92% recorded in April 2023.

Reason : Fall in prices of mineral oils, basic metals, food products, textiles, non-food articles, crude petroleum & natural gas, and chemical & chemical products

The food index has declined to 1.59%, while fuel and power fell to 9.17%

Manufactured product prices fell 2.97% in May 2023.

Source : PIB

Correct Answer :   4.25%

India's retail inflation dropped to 4.25% in May 2023 from 4.7% in April 2023, according to a data from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation on Monday (12th June 2023).

The consumer price-based index (CPI) inflation in May 2023 is lowest in 25 months. The food inflation also eased to 2.9% in April 2023. It was 3.84% in the month of April 2023. The food basket accounts for nearly half of the CPI. While, inflation in fuel and light also eased to 4.64%, from 5.52% in April 2023.

It was for the second month in a row that retail inflation remained within the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)'s comfort zone of below 6%. Despite the huge 227-basis-point fall since January, CPI inflation remains above the central bank's medium-term target of 4% for the 44th month in a row.

India's CPI inflation in April fell sharply to 4.7% from 6.4% in February on the back of favourable base effects, with softening observed across all the three major groups.

The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), headed by Governor Shaktikanta Das, on Thursday announced that the central bank marginally lowered its inflation projection for the current financial year to 5.1%. Das said the RBI's monetary policy actions are yielding the desired results. In April, the RBI had estimated the consumer price index (CPI) based retail inflation at 5.2% during the fiscal 2023-24.

The central bank has projected the CPI-based inflation at 5.2% for FY23-24, with 5.1% in Q1, 5.4% in Q2, 5.4% in Q3, and 5.2% in Q4, and risks evenly balanced.

The inflation price data are collected from selected 1,114 urban markets and 1,181 villages covering all states/UTs by the NSO. During the month of May 2023, the NSO collected prices from 98.56% villages and 97.04% urban markets, while the market-wise prices reported therein were 88.56% for rural and 90.76% for urban.

Meanwhile, the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) rose sharply to 4.2% in April. It was 1.1% in March, according to NSO data..

Source : Abplive