Correct Answer : Option (A) - 6.1%
Moody’s Analytics projects a modest uptick in India’s economic growth for 2024, estimating a 6.1% expansion, slightly higher than the 6% projected earlier in March. Despite the growth, it remains lower than the 7.7% recorded in 2023. The report highlights concerns regarding inflation, citing India’s recent consumer price inflation hovering around 5% with no clear evidence of abating pressure.
Inflation Dynamics and RBI’s Outlook :
Moody’s Analytics underscores the persistent challenge of inflation
across the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, with uncertain trends. The
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintains a cautious stance, particularly regarding food prices, and projects a retail inflation rate of
4.5% for the
fiscal year 2024-25. Geopolitical tensions further complicate the inflation outlook, with risks to commodity prices and supply chains.
Economic Performance and Post-Pandemic Rebound :
The report assesses the economic landscapes of major
APAC economies, noting a divergence in domestic demand dynamics. While China and Japan face hurdles due to weak internal demand, India and
ASEAN economies benefit from a delayed but improving post-pandemic rebound. However, the output in India remains below pre-pandemic levels by
4%, indicating ongoing recovery challenges from various disruptions, including supply chain issues and geopolitical conflicts.
Regional Comparisons and Recovery Trajectories :
Moody’s Analytics places the recovery of India and Southeast Asia in the context of broader regional and global trends. Despite significant output losses compared to pre-pandemic trajectories, the Asia-Pacific region demonstrates resilience, with a forecasted growth of
3.8% in 2024, outpacing the global economy’s projected
2.5% growth.
